Forecasters now say there’s a 60% chance that a large tropical wave in the Atlantic has the potential to turn into an organized tropical depression or tropical storm that could take aim at Florida or other parts of the southeastern United States in the next seven days.
The National Hurricane Center originally put the probability at 40% on Sunday, then boosted the probability to 50% on Monday before raising it to 60% Tuesday morning.
That’s still considered a “medium chance” that the tropical wave currently several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles islands will become more organized and develop into a depression or a named tropical storm.
“Conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas,” the hurricane center said Tuesday morning.
“Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system,” the hurricane center said.
While some major computer guidance models on Monday had projected the storm system would take aim at Florida or veer westward into the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast map shows a slight eastward shift, with the system potentially moving towards Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
However, big questions remain over whether the system will be able to get more organized and strengthen into a tropical depression or a named tropical storm, according to forecasters from AccuWeather.
“The tropical wave is currently battling a harsh environment in a sea of dry air as it moves west across the Atlantic,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said in a forecast report on AccuWeather.com. “The dry air is working to keep the wave from gaining any organization.”
Wind shear can block the development of tropical systems, or even cause an existing tropical storm or hurricane to weaken, AccuWeather noted.
DaSilva said the tropical disturbance that’s currently being monitored in the Atlantic could get organized and strengthen later this week when it’s expected to “move into an area with fairly low shear and ample moisture.”
“This feature will interact with another ripple in the atmosphere early this week, causing the two to consolidate into one low-pressure area,” AccuWeather said. “Exactly how these two interact and where they re-form as a single tropical rainstorm may determine the future path near the Caribbean this week and perhaps the U.S. beyond.”
The Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet during the past few weeks, with no named storms developing after an active period in June and early July. The season, which officially began on June 1, has seen three named storms — Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris.
The next named storm in the Atlantic will be called Debby.
