Every metro area wants to attract and retain young, college-educated workers, but that stands as a particular challenge to Hampton Roads. These early-career professionals power the economy and often emerge as next-generation leaders, so their exodus is a problem warranting concern and deserving action.
Valuable new research provides greater detail about those individuals and families most likely to depart and their reasons for moving elsewhere. That information should drive strategic decisions — by cities and the larger region — if Hampton Roads hopes to compete with other metro areas courting this coveted cohort.
Earlier this year, demographers at the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service released an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data showing that, in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic, scores of people were leaving Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia while smaller metro areas and rural communities experienced modest growth.
The population loss wasn’t uniform across the region; while Newport News and Virginia Beach recorded declines, Suffolk and Isle of Wight saw increases. But the overall effect reflected long-standing concerns about the vitality of a regional economy dependent on defense industries, tourism and hospitality, and the Port of Virginia.
Several iterations of the always insightful State of the Region reports, produced annually by the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy, Old Dominion University, showed Hampton Roads struggling to recoup job losses from the Great Recession in 2007-08, and lagging behind comparable metro areas such as Richmond.
The 2017 report, in particular, expressed concern about “brain drain” — that is the loss of those in “prime working age (25-54)” — and concluded that retaining these workers should be a priority. The authors offered suggestions to arrest these losses, but noted “no silver bullet exists that suddenly will vault us forward and change everything for the better.”
The post-pandemic landscape may be different, but the problem remains, as a new report sponsored by the Hampton Roads Executive Roundtable shows.
The study, conducted last year and released in June, was intended to not simply quantify outmigration from Hampton Roads, but to probe why people were leaving.
It found about one-third of people aged 22-35 responded they were unsure, somewhat likely or very likely to leave Hampton Roads within five years. Those who moved here as adults, who don’t have military ties and who don’t have children at home are most likely to migrate elsewhere.
They cited the region’s high cost of living, concerns about public safety, better professional opportunities, and a lack of available health care as key reasons for why they would depart. The cost of housing and its availability also factored high in those responses.
Equally important is why people choose to remain in Hampton Roads. For those in the military or tied to the armed forces, the decision isn’t always theirs, but they expressed greater satisfaction with the region, owing to a sense of community they feel here — a valuable insight.
Interviews with those involved in the “entrepreneurial ecosystem” offered mixed reviews as well. They touted the opportunities for Hampton Roads to be a hub of development and innovation, but knocked the region for its lack of cohesion and cooperation. That’s a long-standing concern, reflected in decades-long arguments about what to call the metro area (Hampton Roads, Tidewater, the 757, etc.).
There is confidence that the region is moving in the right direction in some of these areas. Many of these issues are quite familiar and local officials have worked for years to diversify the Hampton Roads economy, to seek opportunities for regional cooperation and to pave the way for entrepreneurs to build the businesses of tomorrow.
But those efforts will need more buy-in, stronger partnerships among cities and a clearer direction if they are to produce results. Those who believe in the promise of Hampton Roads should pay close attention as groups such as the Hampton Roads Executive Roundtable turn these results into actionable recommendations and push for policies that can keep talented workers here for years to come.
