The National Hurricane Center originally put the probability at 40% on Sunday, then boosted the probability to 50% on Monday before raising it to 60% Tuesday morning.

That’s still considered a “medium chance” that the tropical wave currently several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles islands will become more organized and develop into a depression or a named tropical storm.

“Conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas,” the hurricane center said Tuesday morning.

“Interests in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of this system,” the hurricane center said.

While some major computer guidance models on Monday had projected the storm system would take aim at Florida or veer westward into the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast map shows a slight eastward shift, with the system potentially moving towards Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

However, big questions remain over whether the system will be able to get more organized and strengthen into a tropical depression or a named tropical storm, according to forecasters from AccuWeather.

“The tropical wave is currently battling a harsh environment in a sea of dry air as it moves west across the Atlantic,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, said in a forecast report on AccuWeather.com. “The dry air is working to keep the wave from gaining any organization.”

Wind shear can block the development of tropical systems, or even cause an existing tropical storm or hurricane to weaken, AccuWeather noted.

DaSilva said the tropical disturbance that’s currently being monitored in the Atlantic could get organized and strengthen later this week when it’s expected to “move into an area with fairly low shear and ample moisture.”

“This feature will interact with another ripple in the atmosphere early this week, causing the two to consolidate into one low-pressure area,” AccuWeather said. “Exactly how these two interact and where they re-form as a single tropical rainstorm may determine the future path near the Caribbean this week and perhaps the U.S. beyond.”

The Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet during the past few weeks, with no named storms developing after an active period in June and early July. The season, which officially began on June 1, has seen three named storms — Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris.

The next named storm in the Atlantic will be called Debby.

It’ll be mostly cloudy Tuesday morning with scattered showers. Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon with a lower rain chance. Scattered storms will fire up late in the afternoon to evening. Highs will return to the upper 80s today with humidity building.

Highs will climb to the low 90s on Wednesday with an afternoon heat index in the triple digits. Expect partly cloudy skies with a “pop-up” shower or storm possible.

Highs will climb to the mid 90s for the end of the work week with afternoon heat index values in the triple digits. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with scattered showers and storms possible each day. This “summer-like” stretch will continue into the weekend with heat, humidity, and scattered storms.

• Today: Partly Cloudy, Scattered Storms. Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: S 5-15
• Tonight: Partly Cloudy, Scattered Storms. Lows in the mid 70s. Winds: SW 5-10
• Wednesday: Partly Cloudy, Scattered Storms. Highs in the low 90s. Winds: SW 5-10

Tropical Update

Watching a large tropical wave centered several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the warmer waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean during the next day or two A tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (0%)
• Formation chance through 7 days: Medium (60%)

Weather & Health

• Pollen: Low-Mod (Grasses)
• UV Index: 9 (Very High)
• Air Quality: Moderate (Code Yellow)
• Mosquitoes: Extreme

As of late Monday morning, the hurricane center says there’s a 50% chance that the disturbance brewing in the central tropical Atlantic will become more organized and develop into a tropical depression or named tropical storm within seven days.

If the system does develop, it has the potential to target Florida directly, veer west into the Gulf of Mexico or veer east along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern U.S., according to the hurricane center’s seven-day outlook.

The more immediate concerns among forecasters are the potential targets of Puerto Rico, Cuba and the Bahamas.

“An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next couple of days,” the agency said Monday morning. “Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.”

The Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively quiet during the past few weeks, with no named storms developing after an active period in June. The season, which officially began on June 1, has seen three named storms — Tropical Storm Alberto, Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris.

Beryl rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a very strong hurricane, reaching Category 5 status with top sustained winds of 165 mph. The storm’s remnants combined with a frontal system and brought batches of heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of New Jersey in early July.

The next named storm in the Atlantic will be called Debby.

The first will be held on Hatteras Island at the Avon Volunteer Fire Department, 40159 Harbor Road, on Tuesday at 2 p.m. The second will be held Wednesday at 10 a.m. at the Dare County Emergency Operations Center, 370 Airport Road in Manteo.

Topics will include preparedness efforts and why it’s important to never focus only on the category of a storm but instead on the storm’s potential impacts. At the end of each forum, time will be set aside for a community discussion during which attendees can ask questions and share their concerns.

For those unable to attend the free public forums in person, a virtual option will be offered on Wednesday at 10 a.m.

For more information and registration, see darenc.gov/Home/Components/News/News/8668/17.

Expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies today with highs in the upper 80s, near normal for this time of year. Humidity will be okay today but climbing for the rest of the week.

It will be partly cloudy tomorrow with scattered showers and storms possible. Highs will return to the upper 80s with more humidity.

Highs will climb to the 90s for the end of the work week with afternoon heat index values in the triple digits. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with scattered showers and storms possible each day. This “summer-like” stretch will continue into the weekend.

• Today: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: SW 5-15
• Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Lows in the low 70s. Winds: SW 5-10
• Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy, Scattered Storms. Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: S 5-15

___

Tropical update

We’re watching an area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for development and a tropical depression could form mid to late week while the system is near the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or the southeastern Bahamas.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (0%)
• Formation chance through 7 days: Medium (50%)

___

Weather & Health

• Pollen: Moderate (Grasses)
• UV Index: 9 (Very High)
• Air Quality: Moderate (Code Yellow)
• Mosquitoes: Extreme

Today will be a transition day as a cold front continues to slide southeast across the region. We will see a mix of clouds with leftover showers. Expect more sunshine to the north and a bigger rain chance to the south. Highs will only reach the low 80s today.

Get ready for a very nice weekend! Highs will settle in the mid 80s (a few degrees below normal for this time of year) with a dip in humidity. Look for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies on Saturday and lots of sunshine on Sunday.

The heat and humidity will return next week. Highs will climb to the upper 80s and low 90s with more humidity by midweek. Monday and Tuesday look dry but scattered showers and storms return for the second half of the week.

Today: Mix of Clouds, Leftover Showers. Highs in the low 80s. Winds: N/E 5-15
Tonight: Mix of Clouds. Lows in the low 70s. Winds: E 5-10
Tomorrow: Clearing Skies. Highs in the mid 80s. Winds: NE 5-15

___

Tropical Update

No tropical activity at this time

___

Weather & Health

Pollen: Low (Grasses)
UV Index: 5 (Moderate)
Air Quality: Good (Code Green)
Mosquitoes: Extreme

Expect mostly cloudy skies today with more showers and storms throughout the day. Strong to severe storms are possible and rain will be heavy at times, leading to localized flooding. Highs will only reach the low 80s today, but it will still be humid.

A cold front is set to move through on Friday, helping to reset our weather pattern. Scattered showers/storms are possible Friday with more sunshine starting to mix in. Highs will remain in the low 80s.

Get ready for a very nice weekend! Highs will settle in the mid 80s (a few degrees below normal for this time of year) with a dip in humidity. Look for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies on Saturday and lots of sunshine on Sunday.

___

Today: Mostly Cloudy, Showers & Storms. Highs in the low 80s. Winds: SW 5-10
Tonight: Scattered Storms. Lows in the low 70s. Winds: SW 5-10
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy, Scattered Showers. Highs in the low 80s. Winds: N/E 5-10

___

Tropical Update

No tropical activity at this time

___

Weather & Health

Pollen: Low (Grasses)
UV Index: 1 (Low)
Air Quality: Good (Code Green)
Mosquitoes: Extreme

It will be warming to near 90 today with an afternoon heat index near 100. Expect partly cloudy skies this morning to midday with clouds, showers, and storms building this afternoon to evening.

It will be a very similar day on Wednesday. Highs will be near 90 with a heat index near 100. There will be a mix of clouds with showers and storms building in the afternoon to evening.

Expect mostly cloudy skies on Thursday with a bigger chance for showers and storms throughout the day. Highs will drop to the mid 80s, but it will still be humid.

A cold front is set to move through on Friday, helping to reset our weather pattern. Rain chances will drop for the weekend, with more sunshine. Highs will settle in the low to mid 80s with a dip in humidity behind the front.

• Today: Mix of Clouds, PM Storms. Highs near 90. Winds: SW 5-10
• Tonight: Scattered Storms. Lows in the mid 70s. Winds: SW 5-10
• Tomorrow: Mix of Clouds, PM Storms. Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: SW 5-15

___

Tropical update

There is no tropical activity at this time.

___

Weather & Health

• Pollen: Low-Medium (Grasses)
• UV Index: 8 (High)
• Air Quality: Good (Code Green)
• Mosquitoes: Extreme

Floyd County keeps flooding and the federal government keeps coming to the rescue.

In July 2022, at least 40 people died and 300 homes were damaged in flooding across eastern Kentucky. It was the 13th time in 12 years that Floyd County was declared a federal disaster. These are disasters so costly that local governments feel they can’t pay for it all, so the governor asks the president to declare a disaster freeing up federal funds.

“After that flood I had 500 homeless people looking at me, ‘Judge what are we going to do’?” recalled Judge Robbie Williams, administrator for the county of a bit more than 35,000 people. “It’s overwhelming and it’s just a matter of time before it happens again.”

It did. In 2023, Floyd County was declared a disaster again for the 14th time, starting in 2011. And Floyd County isn’t even the nation’s most disaster-prone county. Neighboring Johnson County has 15 disasters declared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency since 2011.

When it comes to extreme weather and other so-called natural disasters, people generally look to the hurricane or earthquake-prone coasts and say that’s where the danger is. But that’s not where the highest concentration of federally declared disasters are, according to an atlas of 713 FEMA declared disasters created by Rebuild by Design and New York University. While most people in disasters think about federal government direct financial help to individual victims to pay for lost housing and businesses, the atlas focuses on the $60 billion pot of FEMA aid to governments.

Eight of the nine counties with the most federal declared disasters since 2011 — more than a dozen each — are in Kentucky, with the one in Vermont. These counties have four to five times the number of disaster as the national average of three in the past 13 years.

“California and Louisiana and I would say now even Texas, Florida, for sure, they soak up all the oxygen when you hear about these giant storms,” said atlas creator Amy Chester, director of the disaster prevention-focused Rebuild By Design nonprofit group. “But what you’re not hearing about are these storms that are happening all the time, and that’s just becoming like, regular to places like Vermont.” Chester also mentioned Tennessee, Oklahoma, Missisippi, Iowa and Alaska as hotspots.

“We want to show that climate change is already here,” Chester said of the data covers 2011 to 2023, but doesn’t include heat waves, drought or COVID. “Communities are suffering all over.”

Before she crunched the data, Chester said she figured Vermont would be a haven from climate change. Cooler. Inland. Instead it’s a disaster hot spot.

“It’s awful” Chester said. “It just keeps happening to them.”

Days after she said that Vermont flooded again, this time from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl.

Flooding is the most common disaster in the United States, according to FEMA. Since 2011, FEMA handed out more than $41 billion in aid following hurricanes, the most of any disaster type.

“What the data tell us is that the frequency and severity of disasters at local-state scales is increasing with rural, suburban, and urban places being affected nationwide,” Susan Cutter, co-director of the Hazards Vulnerability and Resilience Institute at the University of South Carolina, said in an email. She wasn’t part of Chester’s research. “More needs to be done to enhance resilience to reduce their impacts on people.”

The largest county in the nation that has not had a federally declared disaster since 2011 is Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, where the city of Charlotte is.

“We’ve been blessed,” said Charlotte emergency management chief Robert Graham, who attributes the lack of federal disasters to good luck, good government and good geography.

“We are protected from the coast somewhat,” Graham said of the inland county. “We don’t get all the impacts from the mountains. Charlotte seems to be in a, somewhat of a sweet spot.”

Graham said a cushy reserve fund and planning have prevented the city from having to go to the federal government for financial help after disasters like a 2019 flood. But he said he knows it’s only a matter of time before the city’s luck runs out.

Luck long abandoned eastern Kentucky.

In Floyd County, geography and government regulations make it tough, Williams said. The mountain-heavy county has people living in the narrow valley floor in old coal camps, he said. And when it rains, the ever-shallower creeks overflows.

“We’re seeing historic levels of flooding,” Williams said. “It’s only getting worse.”

Environmental regulations won’t let local officials dredge the creeks, which keep getting built up with silt coming down the mountains, often from development, Williams said. Some creeks decades ago were 20 feet deep but are now shallow enough to walk across, he said.

The problem is there is nowhere for the rain to go,” Williams said.

National Weather Service data shows that Floyd County now averages more than 50 inches of rain a year, up from 42 to 43 inches a year in the mid 1980s. Warmer air holds more moisture, with studies and statistics showing the Eastern United States is not only getting more rain, but more intense downpours that cause floods.

Floyd County’s government received more than $35 million in FEMA disaster aid since 2011. That’s not even near the top, where the big money went to places devastated by hurricanes.

Five counties — three of them in New York — received more than $1 billion in FEMA aid, led by Manhattan’s New York County, which got $8.9 billion, nearly all of it due to 2012’s Hurricane Sandy. All of the top five counties were struck by one or more hurricanes.

Chester’s group decided to look at congressional districts and how they compared in disasters, especially with a nearly evenly split House of Representatives.

Nearly 60 counties have had at least 10 federally declared disasters since 2011 and nearly 70% of them are represented in Congress by Republicans. About 280 counties have had no disasters in that time periods and 87% of them are represented by Democrats, according to the NYU data.

Chester noted that Republicans aren’t talking about climate change on the campaign trail, but said “research shows that extreme weather is not a partisan issue.”

More important is how state and local policies create or minimize risk for future disasters, said Samantha Montano, a professor of emergency management at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy. And in Floyd County the government using FEMA money is buying the homes of 150 residents to move them out of harm’s way, but some don’t want to leave, Williams said.

“Until we get those homes out of these flood ways… we’re still going to have these issues,” Williams said.

___

Data journalist Mary Katherine Wildeman contributed from Hartford, Connecticut.

___

Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears

___

Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

___

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

Expect mostly cloudy skies with showers and storms throughout the day. Rain will be heavy at times with a risk for flooding and a threat for severe storms. Highs will only reach the mid 80s today, but it will be humid.

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and storms through the work week as a stationary front lingers over the Mid-Atlantic. Highs will warm to the upper 80s with a heat index near 100 for Tuesday and Wednesday.

A cold front is set to move through Friday to Saturday, helping to reset our weather pattern. Rain chances will decrease, and we should see more sunshine mix in for the weekend. Highs will settle in the mid 80s with a dip in humidity behind the front.

• Today: Showers & Storms. Highs in the low 80s. Winds: S 5-10
• Tonight: Showers & Storms. Lows in the mid 70s. Winds: S 5-10
• Tomorrow: Scattered Storms. Highs in the upper 80s. Winds: SW 5-10

___

Tropical update

There is no tropical activity at this time.

___

Weather & Health

• Pollen: Low (Grasses)
• UV Index: 2 (Low)
• Air Quality: Good (Code Green)
• Mosquitoes: Extreme