This is part of a new reporting partnership between The Virginian-Pilot/Daily Press and WTKR News 3.
We knew these days would come.
This week, Hampton Roads recorded some of the hottest temperatures of the year, and more sweltering weather is on the way. So how did we get here?
For late spring and the early part of summer, temperatures in May and June were considered “below normal,” but meteorologists often say normal temperatures are just the average of the abnormal.
It’s relatively uncommon for a day to hit the exact average, but by and large, average temperatures in May and June were 3.7 and 3.8 degrees below normal, respectively. So far in July, Hampton Roads has been 1.3 degrees above “normal” temperatures.
As most Hampton Roads residents know, July is hot. But when accompanied by high humidity and a lack of storms that typically cool temperatures, that heat can be amplified. Usually, the pattern comes from the Bermuda High, or a broad area of high pressure that gets stuck around off the coast of Bermuda. With the flow around high pressure, the clockwise rotation brings warm winds, usually from the south and the southwest.
What defines a heat wave can vary. According to the National Weather Service, a heat wave is “a period of abnormally hot weather generally lasting more than two days.” Other entities say increased temperatures should last longer, such as three or more days, and some define it by how above-average temperatures are.
Inland communities tend to be more at-risk for a triple-digit heat index, or how heat feels to the human body. In the greater Hampton Roads area, one example is Franklin, where there’s no influence from the ocean, and areas in eastern North Carolina. For most coastal communities, ocean breezes tend to help cool things.
Over the past couple weeks, areas in the South have faced major heat waves. In Texas, records were broken after a “heat dome” moved in from the Gulf. In some cities, temperatures surpassed 110 degrees. For this week’s heat in Hampton Roads, much of the fuel is coming from humidity.
“Unusually warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico and in the western Atlantic Ocean will contribute to persistent, oppressive humidity in nearby coastal areas and limit nighttime cooling,” a notice from the National Weather Service reads. “Widespread daily high minimum temperature records are likely.”
For visitors and residents looking to seek refuge from the heat, if outdoor activities are to take place, they’re recommended during the early morning or eveningor during the evening”]. Overall, long exposure to heat outside should be limited if possible. As for UV, or the intensity of the sun, that can change daily. This time of the year, the sun is almost directly overhead, or close to it, and when there are days lacking cloud cover, UV indices can climb higher on the scale.
Typically, the UV index each day is measured on a scale from 0 to 11+. The Environmental Protection Agency forecasts UV levels, but because daily weather impacts can change, the forecasts are sometimes a bit off.
Though summers have historically been hot in southeast Virginia, climate change has exacerbated high heat levels that, at some times, are dangerous for people’s health. And if conditions continue, it can make some parts of the world unlivable, said Hans-Peter Plag, professor of ocean and earth sciences and director of the Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute at Old Dominion University.
“The key parameter that is telling us what is happening with the planet is the Earth’s energy imbalance,” Plag said. “That means the difference between the energy we get from the sun and the energy that’s being reflected or radiated back into space.”
Unfortunately, Plag said, not enough has been done to lessen the impact of the imbalance. Higher temperatures means stronger and more frequent storms and extreme precipitation events. More people are also likely to deal with heat-related illness or death, especially those who work outside for long periods.
“We have turned on the heating to the maximum, and actually the whole discussion currently is about reducing the increase in heating,” he said.
Often, the Earth is described as a greenhouse, but Plag said it’s more similar to an indoor pool since we have the ocean. The ocean’s high heat capacity makes it more difficult to feel immediate impacts of rising temperatures. Without intervention, infrastructure in some cities may not be as sustainable.
“I think we still have this mindset that the changes in climate will be relatively small, and we build infrastructure for the climate we have today,” Plag said. “We are not building infrastructure for the climate that we have next year, or in 10 years from now. When you think about how long buildings actually exist, commercial buildings on average, 20 years; public buildings, 50 (and) residential, 100 years. We should basically today start to build for the climate we expect to have in 50 or 100 years from now, but we are not doing this.”
Plag added that in the world of climate science, the analogy of the boiling frog is often used, though not always correctly. In the experiment, a frog is placed in water, and the temperature is gradually increased until it begins to boil. The frog, however, does not notice the small incremental increases, and it dies.
“This experiment that we all refer to happened in Boston in 1880,” Plag said. “Also, they had the frog in a big pot and the frog did not jump out. In 2012 or so, somebody repeated this experiment. Now that the pot was on a table, the frog could see where it had to jump, and it did not stay in the water.
“The frog did not jump out in the first experiment because it had no way of finding out where it may land. We need to jump out, and we are not as smart as the frog. We know where we need to jump, but we don’t jump … We stay in a climate that is warming and pretend that it’s not warming.”
For the latest weather and heat forecasts, tune in to WTKR News 3 or visit wtkr.com/weather.
Eliza Noe, eliza.noe@virginiamedia.com
WTKR News 3 Chief Meteorologist Patrick Rockey, weather@wtkr.com
