The poll found Harris has 48% to Trump’s 46% among likely voters.

The result is within the survey’s margin of error, making the results a statistical tie.

Among a slightly larger pool of all voters, not just those seen as likely to vote, the poll finds Harris and Trump tied at 46%.

The campaign is still in flux. Harris’ campaign began on July 21, immediately after President Joe Biden said he would end his reelection campaign.

Since then, in Florida and across the country, Democrats have reported enthusiastic support for their new candidate as Republicans have switched gears from opposing Biden to opposing Harris.

“I think it shows that we are a pretty divided country. Part of the deficit for Biden was with Democratic enthusiasm. At least for now, it appears that Harris has captured much of the Democratic base and returned the race to basically a dead heat,” Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist, said via text.

Wagner — who also is co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll — said the numbers show “how much Biden was dragging the ticket.”

Demographic breakdowns:

— American voters quickly assumed their partisan positions. Among Democratic likely voters surveyed, Harris has support of 82%. Among Republicans, Trump has support of 87%. Independent likely voters are closely divided, with 45% for Harris and 43% for Trump. “The presidential race really shows how much partisan identity drives our choices. This has become another election that will be decided by who turns out their voters better,” Wagner said.

— There is a gender gap. Among women, Harris is at 50% and Trump at 43%. Among men, Harris has 45% and Trump is at 49%.

— Democrats have touted Harris’ appeal to younger voters. The Florida Democratic Party put out an email blast Tuesday morning that proclaimed, “The youth vote will decide the election.”

That doesn’t show up in the FAU poll. Among likely voters younger than 50, Harris is at 41% to 49% for Trump. Among likely voters 50 and older, Harris is at 52% and Trump is at 44%.

Wagner said the breakdowns by age are large groups that may not best assess the views of the youngest voters. And, he said, younger voters often are one of the last groups to focus on an election.

A week ago, an FAU national poll found 49% for Trump, the Republican nominee, to 44% for Harris, among likely voters. It’s not a direct comparison, since the poll released on July 23 was conducted immediately after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention with questioning halted immediately after Biden dropped out. So the matchup was hypothetical, without people actually seeing the rollout of her campaign.

When likely voters were given the additional choice in the new poll of independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., he gets 8% in a three-way matchup.

With Kennedy in a hypothetical matchup, Harris is at 44% and Trump at 43%.

Another test

The poll included a generic question asking people which party they’d vote for in fall elections for U.S. House of Representatives.

Likely voters favored the Democrat over the Republican 47% to 42%, a five-point advantage for Democrats, and among all voters a Democrat was ahead 46% to 42%, a four-point advantage.

A week earlier, Republicans had a one-point advantage among likely voters, and Democrats had a one-point advantage among all voters.

Wagner said the small Democratic lead in the latest survey is a “good measure that Harris’ candidacy has brought the base back and will likely help down ballot. This is one of the reasons so many elected Dems wanted Biden to step aside.”

Favorability

Harris was viewed favorably by 53% of voters and unfavorably by 44%, which is a net favorability rating of 9 percentage points.

Among Democrats, 87% viewed her favorably, compared to 17% of Republicans and 48% of independents.

Trump was viewed favorably by 49% of voters and unfavorably by 50%, a net negative of 1 point.

Among Democrats, 19% viewed him favorably, compared to 86% of Republicans and 43% of independents.

Biden departure

Many voters had positive emotional reactions to Biden’s decision to end his reelection and Harris taking his place, the survey found.

Asked about Biden being out and Harris being in, 20% of voters expressed excitement, 18% joy/happiness, 18% fear, 9% pride, 7% sadness and 7% anger.

Comparisons:

• Democrats — 33% expressed excitement, 24% joy/happiness, 16% pride, 7% fear, 7% sadness and 3% anger.
• Republicans — 32% expressed fear, 12% anger, 11% joy/happiness, 10% sadness, 7% excitement; and 3% pride.
• Independents — 19% expressed excitement, 17% joy/happiness, 16% fear, 8% anger, 7% pride and 5% sadness.

Republicans (26%) and independents (28%) were much more likely than Democrats (11%) to say they didn’t know how they felt.

Fine print

The poll of 997 U.S. registered voters was conducted July 26 to July 27 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents.

However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.

The nationwide Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday found 45% of voters would like to see someone else as the Democratic nominee, 40% said he should remain as the Democratic nominee, and 16% weren’t sure.

Democrats weren’t as likely to support jettisoning Biden, with 55% saying their party should continue with him. But 35% of Democrats said he should be replaced.

And younger voters were far more likely to favor replacing Biden than older voters.

Among voters under age 50, just 33% favored keeping Biden, with 55% wanting him replaced.

Among those aged 50 and older, 45% said the Democratic party should continue with Biden and 37% wanted him replaced.

Close race

Still, the poll found, the overall Trump vs. Biden race remains nail-bitingly close, with 46% of likely voters supporting Trump and 44% for Biden, which is within the survey’s margin of error.

It was similarly close among a somewhat larger group consisting of all registered voters, with 44% for Trump and 42% for Biden.

“The race still looks very close to us, and the fundamentals of the race I don’t think necessarily changed despite Joe Biden’s difficult performance at the debate,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist.

But, Wagner said, the fact that the poll, conducted Saturday and Sunday, didn’t show Biden’s support cratering in the wake of the debate doesn’t mean the president and Democrats should celebrate.

“Sometimes it takes time for significant events to percolate in a way that creates measurable opinion,” he said. “While I suspect Democrats would be at least somewhat relieved that the topline numbers didn’t seem to move that much, it might be a little early to stop holding your breath.”

Wagner, who also is co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll, said public opinion may change as people, including those who didn’t see the debate themselves, talk about it at work, at family gatherings, and at community events.

“Even if they watched the debate, they may not have decided exactly how they feel about it,” he said.

Disgust, sadness, fear

The poll sought to gauge the emotional responses to the candidates and the debate — and voters’ reactions were revealing.

Disgust was the most frequent emotion, cited by 24% of voters in response to Biden and cited by 27% in response to Trump.

After that top emotional response, voters’ reactions to the two candidates diverged.

Sadness, cited by 22% of voters, was the second most common emotional response to Biden, followed by fear at 13% and pride at 12%, joy/happiness, 9%, and anger at 8%.

Joy/happiness, cited by 22% of all voters, was the second most common emotional response to Trump, followed by pride at 18%, anger and fear, both at 11%, and sadness at 4%.

Partisan differences

Sadness was the top emotion toward Biden among Democrats, at 24%, followed by pride at 20%.

Disgust was the top emotion toward Biden among Republicans, at 38%, followed by sadness at 19%

Disgust was also the top emotion toward Biden among independents, at 28%, followed by sadness, at 24%.

The poll didn’t find any significant differences in emotional responses toward Biden based on age or gender.

Disgust was the top emotion toward Trump among Democrats, at 47%, followed by fear at 18%.

Joy/happiness was the top emotion toward Trump among Republicans, followed by pride at 37%.

Republicans were “much more pleased with the former president’s performance than Democrats were of Joe Biden’s performance,” Wagner said. “There was significantly more happiness on the Trump side than on the Biden side.”

And for Democrats, the emotional response of sadness indicates “many of them did not get what they wanted from the debate. That does not mean necessarily that they won’t vote for Joe Biden — but it is an important warning sign,” Wagner said.

“It did not generate anger, it generated sadness,” he said. “In many ways, they hoped it would be better.”

Wagner said the responses don’t necessarily mean that Democrats won’t vote for Biden. He said that would probably be the wrong interpretation.

The share of people who’d like to see a different Democratic candidate may reflect a long-standing desire by voters to see candidates other than the choices they had in 2002, Wagner said.

Independents were almost evenly divided in their emotional responses to Trump, with 26% citing disgust and 23% joy/happiness.

Women were somewhat more likely than men to offer disgust as their emotional response to Trump and men were significantly more likely than women to cite joy/happiness toward Trump.

Older voters were somewhat more likely to cite fear or joy/happiness toward Trump than younger voters. Younger voters are significantly more likely to cite pride in regard to Trump than older voters.

Close race

The nationwide contest — Trump leading 46% to 44% among likely voters — remains within the poll’s 3 percentage point margin of error.

Wagner said the share of undecided voters — 5% among likely voters and 6% among all voters — is relatively low. “That’s a pretty good indicator that these candidates are well-known commodities going into November.”

Biden does better among women likely voters, among whom he leads 46% to 42%, and among voters 50 and older, among whom he leads 48% to 45%.

Trump does better among men, among whom he leads 50% to 41%, and among voters under age 50, among whom he leads 47% to 37%.

Trump is the overwhelming favorite — 89% — among Republicans and Biden is the overwhelming favorite — 84% — among Democrats. Relatively few Democrats or Republicans were undecided or considering another candidate.

Independent voters favor Trump over Biden, 42% to 35%, but a far higher share of independents (11%) said they would vote for another candidate or were undecided (12%).

The latest poll represents a slight improvement for Trump — though it’s so small as to be statistically insignificant — compared with an FAU poll conducted from April 26 through April 28.

In the April nationwide poll, the results were 47% for Biden and 46% for Trump among likely voters.

Among the larger sample of all voters in April, the two candidates were tied at 44%.

RFK Jr.

The presence of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. didn’t dramatically alter the results. The poll suggested Kennedy has a slightly more negative impact on Biden than on Trump.

When Kennedy was included among the options, Trump had 42% of likely voters, Biden had 39%, and Kennedy had 10%.

When pollsters asked the question that included Kennedy, 4% of likely voters picked another candidate and 5% were undecided.

In a Biden vs. Trump matchup that didn’t include Kennedy’s name, 6% still said they’d prefer another candidate and 5% were undecided.

The results of the Biden-Trump-Kennedy question are more favorable to Trump in the latest poll than they were in April.

In April, the three-candidate question found 39% for Trump, 44% for Biden and 11% for Kennedy.

Harris, Obama or …?

Though significant shares of voters thought Biden should be replaced at the top of the ticket, it’s not clear who the party would pick if the party needed to find someone else.

Democrats were given several potential choices, including an obvious possibility, Vice President Kamala Harris and an unlikely choice, former First Lady Michelle Obama.

• 25% picked Harris.
• 21% picked Obama.
• 17% picked Gov. Gavin Newsom of California.
• 7% picked Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan.
• 6% picked Pete Buttigieg, the U.S. transportation secretary and former mayor of South Bend, Ind.
• 2% picked U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, a member of The Squad of progressive members of Congress.

Wagner said hypothetical questions such as this often lead people to go with the names they’ve heard the most, such as Harris, Obama and Newsom. “Sometimes when you’re testing candidates a lot of it is name recognition. Obama, Harris and Newsom are some of the well-known options.”

Newsom, Whitmer and Buttigieg are widely seen as future candidates for their party’s nomination.

The poll found 16% of Democrats were undecided and 6% said they’d like a candidate other than the six options they were given.

Harris was the choice of 33% of Democrats under age 50 and Obama was the pick of 28%. Just 8% of younger Democrats were undecided.

Harris was the choice of 20% of Democrats age 50 and older, and Newsom was the pick of 19%. Among older Democrats, 22% were undecided.

Fine print

The poll of 961 U.S. registered voters was conducted June 29 and June 30 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points  for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents.

However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, men and women, or younger and older voters, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

The total percentages for some questions don’t always total 100% because of rounding.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.

Among the hardest of hard-core supporters for seven years, he bought into the rhetoric, and espoused it as his own.

Logis shunned those who disagreed, and developed bonds with fellow believers.

He spent hours at the computer, posting on social media and writing pro-Trump missives. In person, volunteered for the Trump campaign, he spoke at events and helped develop a Broward-based political club, Americans for Trump.

He ignored sources of information that didn’t echo MAGA viewpoints, and castigated journalists and news outlets that didn’t parrot the party line.

No more.

“It turned out that I was wrong,” Logis said in an interview. “I should not have supported this person. I should not have supported other MAGA candidates.”

Having done a 180 almost two years ago, Logis is now focused on creating a community for people like him, onetime true believers who have left the MAGA universe, or are contemplating leaving it behind.

Leaving MAGA

What is now widely known as MAGA started as the acronym for Make America Great Again, the slogan Trump used during his successful 2016 presidential campaign, a phrase emblazoned on the red hats frequently worn by the candidate and his supporters.

The vehicle for the community Logis hopes to create is a new organization, Leaving MAGA. It has a nascent presence online at leavingmaga.org, with organizers preparing for a public launch around the Fourth of July.

At launch, people will see the faces of Leaving MAGA via recorded video testimonials from those who were heavily into the movement and who, like Logis, changed their views and left. Also in the works, a downloadable e-book, a social media campaign, and efforts to generate news coverage.

Leaving MAGA’s website lists three objectives:

• Empower others to leave MAGA and tell their stories.
• Foster reconciliation with their friends and family.
• Develop movement leaders to help others leave.

In essence, the plan is to extend a hand.

Logis said shouting or lecturing his former cohorts would be counterproductive. The idea of Leaving MAGA is to provide a place where people can find the sense of community they had within the MAGA movement.

“We want them to have a place to go. That is one of the most difficult parts — and for some will be the most difficult part of leaving — that they’re going to walk away from a community that they’ve been completely emotionally connected to for probably several years,” Logis said.

The positive approach — “an exit ramp of sorts” — to a non-MAGA community is essential.

“Without a new place to go, I could not realistically expect people to leave, even if deep down they know that they should.”

Logis also has a message for those who don’t like Trump and get agitated at his supporters.

“I really implore people who are anti-Trump, anti-MAGA to consider and think about how they speak about Trump voters,” Logis said. “If you refer to Trump voters as cultists and you say that they’re Nazis and you say that they’re racist and you say they’re misogynists and that they’re homophobes and that they’re Islamophobes …  you’re pushing them closer. You’re giving them reasons to stay.”

Community

Logis said it’s impossible to overstate the feeling of community that enveloped him, and others in the MAGA world.

“We were true believers and we invested all of our being into MAGA. We had our tight-knit community, we’d go to birthday parties and holiday dinners and, and kids’ events sometimes, all the events people do in social circles. We were unified as MAGA-Americans,” Logis said.

“My MAGA second family, as much as I’m embarrassed to admit this, oftentimes took precedence over my actual blood family,” he said. Looking back, he said his immersion in the world of MAGA strained relationships, including in his family.

Logis, 47, has a wife and two children.

“I want us to be a destination,” Logis said, adding that right now “there’s nowhere for them. They don’t have a feeling of anywhere to go.”

Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University and co-director of the PolCom Lab, which conducts public opinion research, said that the sense of community Logis described is a part of its appeal for some.

“They see people who are similar to them or at least have the same values as them and it creates a sense of camaraderie. And that is an effective organizing principle for political movements historically, and it shows up here,” he said.

Conceptually, he said the idea of “a different community with a different political direction does make some sense.”

Not so fast

Wagner cautioned the organization’s plan would be exceedingly difficult to execute, noting that groups such as the Lincoln Project and Republican Voters Against Trump, among other well-funded efforts, are working in a similar space.

“It’s pretty clear that they haven’t had the kind of traction that the MAGA movement has had,” Wagner said.

Logis said Leaving MAGA’s effort isn’t the same as the others, which are more focused on the coming election.

It’s also difficult, he said, for people to differentiate among groups that are genuinely civic-oriented as opposed to those that are run primarily for online traffic and ultimately profit.

Scott Newmark is even more skeptical.

“It’s tilting at windmills. It’s fanciful,” Newmark said. “The effort is misguided.”

Newmark is the founder of Americans for Trump, a Broward political organization that has been on hiatus since he moved to Palm Beach County shortly after the 2020 election.

Newmark said the number of people who share Logis’s current outlook and are thinking of departing the movement is infinitesimally small, if it exists at all.

“What kind of legs does this kind of a movement have?” Newmark asked. “I don’t know a single person who is contemplating leaving MAGA to go over to (vote for President Joe Biden). That’s not going to happen.”

Newmark said he still considers Logis and his wife friends. “It saddens me that he’s gone away from the MAGA movement because he was a very good, articulate spokesman for it. He was a big part of the events. We were very close,” Newmark said.

Potential

Logis believes there are many more people like him.

And there is evidence of dissatisfaction with Trump among at least some Republicans.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the most anti-Trump unsuccessful candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, received more than 4.2 million primary votes — more than a quarter of which came after she dropped out. (She subsequently said she’s supporting Trump for president.)

In the Florida primary, Haley received 155,560 votes or 13.9%.

Steve Vilchez, a resident of suburban Chicago, is among those who have left MAGA.

He was enthralled with the movement, but never voted for Trump because he was too young.

Now, 20, Vilchez said, “I will never vote for this man.”

He’s recording one of the videos for the Leaving MAGA launch.

Drawn into MAGA via social media, “I started to slowly but surely embrace the MAGA agenda even though in retrospect, internally, I knew that it was wrong. But I just didn’t know that. I was so convinced that all of Trump’s policies are right, even if I still somewhat disagreed,” he said.

He dropped news outlets that presented a broad range of information and devoured content from Fox, One America News and Newsmax, along with even more right-leaning websites and personalities.

Vilchez, currently a student at Illinois State University hoping to become science teacher, said he started to have doubts during the pandemic when Trump raised the prospect of warding off the virus by injecting bleach or shining a light in the body.

Still, he said he believed the untrue claims that the 2020 election was rigged.

Vilchez, whose parents immigrated from Mexico, said he didn’t like Trump’s unfulfilled 2016 campaign promise to build a wall and have Mexico pay for it. “But since I started to listen to these right-leaning conservative outlets, I slowly began to embrace it and support that policy,” he said.

“Looking at it now, it just doesn’t make sense because why would I support a strict border and strong deportation policy when my parents came to America from the country that Donald Trump seems to despise so much?” adding it was “a contradiction that I never really wanted to admit.”

Entering MAGA

Practically from the moment Trump entered his first presidential race in 2015, Logis was drawn to him.

“Here’s a person who it felt like was willing to take a flamethrower to the system, someone who would be an actual true disruptor in Washington,” he said. “I just saw him as the right person for that job at this moment in our history.”

Enthralled with Trump and viewing the prospect of Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the presidency as “an existential threat,” Logis said he ignored controversial statements and policy pronouncements.

“It sounds delusional to me today,” Logis said. “I had a lot of fear, and I listened to that fear and that was really how I got swept up into the entire MAGA movement and community.”

He volunteered on the campaign in Broward County, and on election night “felt vindicated and validated.”

“I thought at the time that our victory was akin to a second founding of America,” Logis said.

He began devoting more and more time to the efforts — “I never took an hour off” — writing freelance articles for right-wing websites, posting on social media, creating a podcast, and participating in events.

“I was a MAGA true believer,” he said. “We were the real Americans. Anyone against us were the fake Americans,” Logis said.

“I had adopted this approach of being this MAGA patriotic soldier in an existential war of good versus evil,” he added.

He contributed to ultra-conservative sites The Federalist and The Daily Caller. On social media, he once described Democrats as “malignant cancerous cells that seek to overtake healthy cells.”

He regrets those statements.

“The level of dehumanization that I stooped down to is something that I’m honestly ashamed and embarrassed of. But my works remain in the public realm because I am going to own them. I’m going to own up to them and I’m going to continue to take responsibility for them,” he said. “No one coerced me into supporting Trump. No one coaxed me. I take accountability for that.”

Making the exit

From 2015 through the 2020 election, Logis said he sometimes had glimmers of doubt, which grew stronger when Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, hoping to prevent certification of Biden’s election victory over Trump.

Months later, those feelings intensified thanks to Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Logis said he voted for DeSantis, based largely on Trump’s endorsement, and liked the way the governor handled the first stages of the COVID pandemic.

By summer 2021, when the Delta wave of the pandemic was spreading infections and death, and he started looking at a broader range of news and information sources, including mainstream media outlets and often found himself saying, “I didn’t know that. I didn’t realize that had happened.”

Finally a year later, on Aug. 30, 2022, he publicly broke with the movement, publishing an online article declaring his split.

“I left one community, and I now felt a little bit like a man on an island. You divorced the community. Now what’s next?”

The organization

Leaving MAGA incorporated at the beginning of the year, is awaiting action from the Internal Revenue Service on its application for nonprofit status, and hasn’t yet started raising money.

He said organizers hope to hire staff, a plan they see as requiring raising $250,000 to $500,000 in the next six to 12 months.

So far, he said people are volunteering for roles as editorial director or working on visual presentations, social media and legal advice.

So far, people find Leaving MAGA through social media or when they come across a podcast or video. Someone who knew Vilchez read Logis’ social media posts and connected the two.

Though he has lived in Broward and Palm Beach counties since moving to Florida from New York in 2012, Logis said Leaving MAGA’s focus isn’t confined to Florida.

And, he said, it isn’t aimed at the November election.

It’s a longer-term effort because, Logis said, regardless of whether Trump wins or loses, the MAGA movement isn’t going away. “It’s going to stay.”

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.

A Florida Atlantic University poll released Tuesday found a strikingly close contest, with 46% for Trump and 45% of likely voters for Biden. The candidates are a percentage point or two apart in each state, making the race too close to consider either one the frontrunner.

Almost half the voters polled in those critical swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — believe Trump is guilty of the criminal charges that resulted in his conviction last week on 34 felony counts.

The poll, which started after the jury verdict was announced, found voters are divided — largely based on their political affiliation — about whether Trump should go to prison.

Democrats overwhelmingly think Trump deserves prison time, though one in six said he shouldn’t.

Most Republicans said he doesn’t deserve prison time — but one in seven said Trump should get locked up.

Pollsters also found some respondents who said they would vote for Trump in the fall — but also think he should be imprisoned for the crimes for which he was convicted.

Among voters who said they planned to vote for Trump this fall, 10% said they believe he was guilty of crimes on which a New York jury found him guilty and 7% said he “deserves” prison time for the felony convictions.

Critical states

In the three states together — all northern, industrial states where the population shares many characteristics — Trump has 46% and Biden has 45% of likely voters, FAU pollsters found.

Another 4% said they’d vote for another candidate and 5% said they were undecided.

FAU polled in the three states because they are critical to the outcome of the Biden-Trump contest.

“Neither side has a meaningful advantage in any of the three states at this time,” Dukhong Kim, an FAU political scientist, said in a written statement.

All are swing states, and together award 44 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Florida, which awards 30 electoral votes this year, for decades was a swing state that could go for either party, but it’s now become much more Republican.

Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist, said the contest is so close that the movement of 2 or 3% of voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could determine the next president.

In 2020, Biden won the three states by thin margins: Michigan by 2.8%; Pennsylvania by 1.2%; and Wisconsin by less than 1%.

Guilty or not

Close to half (48%) voters surveyed in the three states think Trump was guilty of the crime he was accused of in New York.

Another 38% said he was not guilty and 14% said they didn’t know.

There were some notable differences:

• Men were evenly split, with 44% saying he was guilty and 43% saying he wasn’t. Women felt far differently, with 52% declaring him guilty and just 33% saying he wasn’t.
• Voters aged 50 and older were more likely than younger voters to say Trump was guilty, 52% to 40%, with 8 percent saying they didn’t know. Among voters under 50, 42% said he was guilty, 35% said he wasn’t. A much higher share (23%) said they didn’t know.
• People’s assessments lined up with their political affiliations.

Democrats overwhelmingly (79%) said Trump was guilty and Republicans (66%) overwhelmingly said he wasn’t.

There were those who went against the grain in each party: 12% of Democrats said Trump wasn’t guilty and 18% of Republicans said Trump was guilty.

Republicans were more likely (16%) than Democrats (9%) to say they didn’t know if Trump was guilty as charged.

Among independents, 50% said Trump was guilty, 31% said he wasn’t, and 19% said they didn’t know.

“Trump’s legal jeopardy may be rallying part of his base,” said Wagner, who is co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science. “Most of his supporters don’t believe he’s guilty, while Biden voters overwhelmingly think he committed crimes.”

Wagner said the 18% of Republicans who believe Trump is guilty is notable. “If they stay home, it could matter in November especially in close states like these.”

Lock him up

Voters were divided over whether Trump “deserves to serve time in prison” for the crimes, with more opposed to incarceration than supporting it.

The poll found 46% of voters said he doesn’t deserve prison time, 40% said he does deserve a prison sentence, and 14% said they didn’t know.

Men strongly opposed (53% to 37%) prison time. Women narrowly favored prison (44% to 40%).

Among Democrats, 70% said he deserves prison time, 17% said he doesn’t, and 13% said they didn’t know.

Among Republicans, 77% said he does not deserve prison time, 15% said he does and 8% said they didn’t know.

Independents were in the middle, with 41% opposing a prison sentence, 36% in support and 23% who didn’t know.

Head-to-head matchup

Across the three states, each candidate had pockets of relative strength and relative weakness:

• Biden was ahead by 5 percentage points among women and Trump was ahead by 9 percentage points among men.
• Trump was ahead by 8 percentage points among voters aged 18-34. Biden was ahead by 2 percentage points among voters 50 and older.
• Among Democrats, 83% said they’d vote for Biden. Among Republicans, 82% said they’d vote for Trump. Independents were evenly split: 41% for Trump and 40% for Biden.

In Michigan, which awards 15 electoral votes, the survey found Biden support from 47% of likely voters and Trump had 46%. (Among a larger sample of all Michigan voters, they were tied at 45%.)

In Pennsylvania, which awards 19 electoral votes, the survey found Trump had 47% to Biden’s 45% among likely voters. (Among the larger sample of all Pennsylvania voters, the poll found Trump was also ahead by 2 percentage points.)

In Wisconsin, which awards 10 electoral votes, Trump had support of 41% of likely voters to 40% for Biden. (Among the larger sample of all Wisconsin voters, Biden was ahead by 2 percentage points.)

RFK Jr.

When voters were given the options of Biden, Trump or the anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent candidate, there wasn’t a significant difference in the outcome.

Taking the three states together, Biden was at 42% among likely voters, Trump at 41%, Kennedy at 8%, with 3% saying they’d vote for another candidate and 6% undecided.

Age makes a big difference. Kennedy had support of 17% of those under age 50 and 3% of those 50 and older.

Partisan affiliation didn’t make much difference in the results. Kennedy had support of 6% of Democrats, 7% of Republicans and 16% of independent voters.

Issues

Voters in the three states overwhelmingly said the economy (37%) was their most important election issue. Another 18% cited immigration as their No. 1 issue and 15% said abortion. Nothing else was in double digits.

“These battleground states continue to prioritize economic concerns over social issues,” Luzmarina Garcia, an FAU political scientist said in a written analysis. “While the economy is the top matter for voters across party lines, we see a stark split on the second-tier priorities.”

According to the poll, 30% of Trump voters rank immigration as their second-most crucial issue compared to only 5.5% of Biden voters. Conversely, a quarter of Biden supporters cite abortion access as highly important, versus just 5% who backed Trump.

Fine print

The poll of 2,068 adults living in the U.S. was conducted May 30 and 31 — after the guilty verdicts were returned — by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab.

The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points.

However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as people in each of the three states, Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.

The nationwide poll conducted in mid-March by Florida Atlantic University found 73% of voters agree that “Democracy may have problems, but it is the best system of government,” including 50% who strongly agree. Just 13% disagree.

But the youngest group of voters, those from 18 to 35, felt much differently.

Slightly more than half — 53% — agreed it’s the best system of government. Just 15% strongly agree while a quarter — 25% — disagreed.

That’s a significant difference — a pro-democracy advantage among all voters of 60 percentage points, compared to just 28 points among younger voters.

The finding merits further study, and warrants concern, said Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist and authority on public opinion polling.

The FAU poll also found the views of the youngest group of voters are dramatically different than the oldest.

Among voters 65 and older, 89% agree (including 73% who strongly agree) and just 6% disagree with the pro-democracy statement. That’s an 83-point pro-democracy advantage.

“The distinction between younger voters and older voters is very stark,” Wagner said, adding it suggests that “among younger voters there is a loss of faith in the system and the process. That should cause us to ask why younger voters feel the democratic system is not working for them?”

Wagner said the thing that keeps jumping out to him from the poll results was the results among younger voters. “If that’s not concerning, we’re not paying attention.”

The youngest voters were also far more likely to express ambivalence when asked if they agree that democracy is the best system of government.

Among all voters, 14% said they didn’t agree or disagree.

Among those 18-34, 25% said they didn’t agree or disagree; among those 65 and older, just 4% didn’t feel either way.

Political differences

The poll results also revealed political differences in response to the democracy statement.

People who said they plan to vote for former President Donald Trump, the presumed Republican nominee, in November were 22 percentage points less likely to agree that democracy is the best system of government than people who said they plan to vote for President Joe Biden.

Among Biden voters, 85% agree democracy is the best form of government even though it may have problems, 6% disagree, and 10% don’t agree or disagree.

Among Trump voters, 63% agree, 18% disagree, 19% don’t agree or disagree.

That’s a 79-point pro-democracy advantage among Biden supporters and a 44-point advantage among Trump supporters.

When the question is examined by party affiliation of those surveyed — as opposed to those who’ve decided between Biden and Trump — the differences aren’t as pronounced.

Among Democrats: 79% agree, 8% disagree, and 13% don’t agree or disagree.

Among Republicans: 69% agree, 17% disagree, and 13% said neither.

Among independents: 67% agree, 15% disagree, and 19% said neither.

Wagner said the larger share of Republicans than Democrats who disagree may stem from Trump, who has “has suggested he thinks the system is not fair. And I think that’s reflected a bit in the Republican vote.”

Income, gender

There were some other demographic differences, but they weren’t nearly as significant as the difference between the youngest and oldest voters or among Biden and Trump voters.

People with higher incomes were more likely to agree that democracy is the best than people who earn less.

Among voters making $50,000 a year or less: 68% agree, 16% disagree, 17% don’t agree or disagree.

Among those making $100,000 or more: 82% agree, 12% disagree, 6% don’t agree or disagree.

The difference in outlook according to earnings isn’t surprising, Wagner said. “If you’re wealthy, it’s pretty easy to say the system is working for you.”

Polling often shows differences in outlooks between men and women. But the FAU poll didn’t find meaningful differences on the democracy question.

Among men: 77% agree with the democracy-is-best statement, 12% disagree, 11%  don’t agree or disagree.

Among women: 69% agree, 15% disagree, 17% don’t agree or disagree.

How well it works

FAU researchers asked a related question about “how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way democracy works in the United States?”

After years of claims by Trump and his supporters that the 2020 presidential election was rigged — an assertion for which repeated investigations have found no evidence — there are higher levels of dissatisfaction among the former president’s supporters.

A total of 46% of voters surveyed said they were satisfied with the way democracy works in the U.S.

Among people age 18-34, it was 36%; for 65 and older voters, 54%; Biden voters, 63%; Trump voters, 33%.

Among all voters, 39% said they were dissatisfied with the way democracy works in the U.S. Among those ages 18-34, 39%; 65 and older, 36%; Biden voters, 23%; Trump voters, 51%.

And 15% of all voters said they weren’t satisfied or dissatisfied. Among those ages 18-34, 25%; 65 and older, 11%; Biden voters, 14%; and Trump voters, 16%.

Takeaways

Overall, Wagner noted, there is still broad support for democracy.

“Most Americans do have faith in democracy, and I think considering all the negativity that we hear, that’s actually a pretty good finding,” Wagner said.

Even though “a good number of people are currently dissatisfied with how our government is operating,” Wagner said “people like democracy and maybe are a little more frustrated with how democracy operates in the United States.”

Wagner said too many people think that younger voters, if they turn out, will automatically vote for Democrats.

“Many people are missing the fact that younger voters are actually pretty upset about the state of our political universe,” and that could lead to some upended assumptions — including the possibility that their voting patterns may not line up with widespread expectations.

One result might be more support from younger voters or independent, third-party candidates, or for Trump, he said.

Fine print

The poll of 1,053 registered voters was conducted March 15-17 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The survey used text messages to reach registered voters who responded to a link to complete the survey online and used automated phone calls to reach other voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents. The margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, is higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.

A nationwide Florida Atlantic University poll released Tuesday found Biden and Trump tied at 44%.

When the responses were narrowed to likely voters, Biden fared slightly better, but the contest is still essentially tied, with 47% for Biden and 45% for Trump.

That’s generally in line with most recent national polls, which have one or the other candidate slightly ahead. The latest RealClearPolling average had Trump leading Biden, 45.5% to 47.2%.

And it’s somewhat expected given “how highly partisan this race is and how fairly evenly divided the country is,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist.

The FAU poll was conducted among voters across the country, and comes as five states, including Florida, are holding their presidential primaries — even though the Biden vs. Trump contest is, for all practical purposes, set.

The election is almost eight months away, and public opinion can shift. And the outcome is determined in state-by-state races for electoral votes, not the overall national totals.

Relatively few people are open to changing their minds. The poll found 4% of those surveyed said they’d vote for another candidate and 4% were undecided.

The FAU poll found the vast majority of Democrats favor Biden (86% to 8%) and the overwhelming majority of Republicans favor Trump (86% to 9%).

Independents are evenly split at 43% for Biden and 40% for Trump, which is within the margin of error and not a statistically significant difference.

The never Trump, never Biden votes

Non-Trump voters were asked why they felt the way they did.

It was an easy question for the overwhelming majority: 67% of non-Trump voters who responded that they would “never” consider voting for him.

That left a relatively small share of non-Trump voters to explain other reasons. The top concern of non-Trump voters was performance, cited by 12%. Just 2% cited the former president’s age. He is 77.

Among non-Trump voters age 18-to-34, 43% said they would “never” consider voting for him, while among those 65 and older, it was 79%.

Non-Biden voters were asked the same question, with 43% saying they would never consider voting for him.

The top concern for non-Biden voters was “performance,” cited by 30%, followed by age, cited by 2%. He is 81.

The reasons for not supporting Biden varied for different groups. Among 18-34 year-olds, 37% cited performance and 11% cited age. Among votes 65 and older, 23% cited performance and just 5% cited age.

No SOTU boost

Biden’s performance at the annual State of the Union Address, which  many independent analysts said was a strong showing that dispelled the narrative that he isn’t mentally up to the job, didn’t produce a rush of voters to him.

Among all voters, 29% said his State of the Union speech made them view Biden as more fit for office with 34% saying it made no change. But 37% said it made him less fit.

Wagner said some of the reaction to the State of the Union is “clearly driven by partisanship. People see political events through their partisan lens.” Still, he said, he expected “Biden was likely to get a more positive response than our numbers suggested. And I expect that would be disappointing for the Biden (campaign).”

Women were more likely than men to say it made him more fit. Men were more likely to say the speech  made him less fit.

There was the usual partisan split as well, with 52% of Democrats saying they saw Biden as more fit after the State of the Union Address and 63% of Republicans said they believe Biden is less fit.

It didn’t help Biden with independents, with 25% saying the speech made Biden seem more fit and 35% less fit.

Overall, Biden is underwater, with more people disapproving of his performance than approving.

His approval is 47% and disapproval 51%.

Wagner said the approval rating for Biden is higher than in some other recent national surveys. “It’s a much better number for Biden than we’ve seen,” he said. It could be a one-time result based on this survey’s sample or, more significantly, the beginning of an improvement for Biden.

There’s no significant difference between men and women.

Age differences

Biden’s approval is lower among the youngest voters (39%) than among the oldest voters (53%).

The Biden vs. Trump matchup question revealed some potentially significant differences among the youngest and oldest voters.

The poll found younger likely voters (traditionally a demographic group that favors Democrats) favor Trump. And older voters (who turn out in greater numbers than younger voters) favored Biden.

18-34 year-olds: Biden, 37%; Trump 54%.35-49 year-olds: Biden, 44%; Trump 48%.50-64 year-olds: Biden, 46%; Trump 43%.65 and older: Biden, 54%; Trump 41%.

The differences among age groups were surprising Wagner said, adding that the responses of younger voters are a cause for concern for the Biden campaign if it continues.

“It would be one thing to see younger voters who were disenchanted or unhappy with Biden’s performance. We’ve seen some evidence of that related to foreign policy, both Israel and Ukraine,” Wagner said. What is potentially ominous for the president’s reelection, he said, was “not just that Biden was doing less well, but Trump was doing considerably better…. It’s hard to see how Biden can win without doing disproportionately well with younger voters.”

Gender divide

The poll found men favor Trump and women favor Biden.

Among female likely voters, Biden was at 53% with Trump at 38%, an advantage of 15 percentage points for the president.

Among male likely voters, Biden had 41% compared to 51% for Trump, an advantage of 10 points for the former president.

Income differences

Lower income voters prefer Trump. As earnings increase, support for Biden increases as well.

• Less than $50,000: Biden, 42%; Trump, 51%.
• $50,000 to $75,000: Biden 48%; Trump 39%.
• $75,000 to $100,000: Biden 52%; Trump 41%.
• More than $100,000: Biden 56%; Trump 38%.

House of Representatives

Voters are evenly divided about the U.S. House of Representatives, with 45% of likely voters saying they’d vote for Democrats if the election were held today and 44% for Republicans.

Party affiliation has a huge correlation with how people would vote in congressional races, with 88% of Democrats voting for a candidate in their party and 92% of Republicans voting for one of their own.

Independents split 41% for Democrats and 35% for Republicans.

Fine print

The poll of 1,053 registered voters was conducted March 15 through March 17 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The survey used text messages to reach registered voters who responded to a link to complete the survey online and used automated phone calls to reach other voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents. The margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, is higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.

More than three-quarters of voters surveyed in a nationwide Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday said it’s unacceptable to call competing candidates nicknames.

And two-thirds said it’s unacceptable to attack competing candidates by disparaging their personal characteristics.

The questions were written to be neutral, and so didn’t mention Trump by name. But there’s no mistaking who has employed the practice of assigning unflattering — or nasty — nicknames to political foes.

In or out of office, Trump is the nation’s name-caller-in-chief.

“The most interesting thing to me is that despite the fact that people say they don’t like it, it doesn’t seem to be determinative for who they’re voting for,” said Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist.

In other words, many say they don’t like the nicknames and personal attacks — but also support Trump.

The poll found Trump leading President Joe Biden 41% to 37%.

What looks like a disconnect between what people say they want and how they actually vote isn’t unique, Wagner said. “(It) is sort of consistent with the pattern we often find in negative campaigning. People say they don’t like it, but tend to be influenced and often persuaded by it.”

Nicknames

During the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, Trump bestowed negative nicknames on his two principal competitors.

“DeSanctimonious” was Trump’s label for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, starting in 2022, when it became obvious that DeSantis planned to run for the 2024 Republican nomination.

Last month, after finishing a distant second place to Trump in the Iowa caucuses, DeSantis dropped out and endorsed Trump.

In return, the former president said the name DeSanctimonious was “officially retired.”

“Birdbrain” is Trump’s name for former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina — even though when he was president he appointed her as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

She is currently Trump’s last remaining rival for the party nomination.

Disapproval

Voters say they don’t like the practice of calling competing candidates by nicknames.

• 58% of voters strongly disagree that it is “acceptable to call competing candidates nicknames”; another 19% somewhat agree that it is acceptable.
• Only 6% strongly agree it’s acceptable and 12% said it’s somewhat acceptable.
• More women strongly disapproved (64%) than men (51%).
• Younger voters were much less bothered than older voters: among 18- to 34-year-olds, 46% strongly disagreed that it is acceptable to use the nicknames, compared to 35-49, 54%; 50-64, 67%; and 65+, 72%.

People who said in the survey they planned to vote for Trump were far less likely than Biden voters to find it unacceptable to call competing candidates by nicknames.

Among Trump voters, 74% said they disagree that nicknames are acceptable (48% strongly; 26% somewhat).

Among Biden voters, 85% said they disagree that nicknames are acceptable (69% strongly; 15% somewhat).

Personal characteristics

Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and unsuccessful candidate for the 2016 presidential nomination, was subjected to a different kind of critique.

A Rolling Stone reporter traveling with Trump described what happened when Fiorina’s face appeared on a TV screen. “Look at that face!” Trump said. “Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president?!”

He added, “I mean, she’s a woman, and I’m not s’posed to say bad things, but really, folks, come on. Are we serious?”

After his comments were published, Trump didn’t dispute the quote, but told Fox News that the comment was “jocular” in manner. “Probably I did say something like that about Carly,” Trump said. “I’m talking about persona. I’m not talking about look.”

Surveyed voters said they don’t like candidates talking about personal characteristics.

Two-thirds of voters disagreed that it is “acceptable to attack the competing candidates by disparaging their personal characteristics.”

A quarter said it is acceptable.

Women were much less comfortable with men making disparaging attacks based on personal characteristics.

Is it acceptable?

• All voters: 44% strongly disagree, 23% somewhat disagree that it’s acceptable.
• Women: 48% strongly disagree, 24% somewhat disagree.
• Men: 39% strongly disagree, 22% somewhat disagree.
• Trump voters: 34% strongly disagree, 28% somewhat disagree.
• Biden voters: 54% strongly disagree; 19% somewhat disagree.

An overwhelming majority (61%) said they strongly disagree that it’s acceptable to attack competing candidates by disparaging their family members. Another 18% somewhat disagree.

Just 15% said they somewhat or strongly agree that attacks on family members are acceptable.

Familiar pattern

Two prominent Floridians were singed by Trump nicknames during the race for the 2016 Republican nomination, when he had many names for his foes, including fellow Republicans.

“Little Marco” Rubio was in reference to the U.S. senator from Florida.

Trump offered a pronunciation and spelling lesson at a rally west of Boca Raton. The label should be l-i-d-d-l-e, he said at the time. He also mocked Rubio as a choke artist.

And he decried “low-energy Jeb Bush,” when referring to the former Florida governor.

They weren’t alone. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, for example, was “lyin’ Ted.”

Trump’s 2016 Democratic opponent in the general election was “Crooked Hillary” Clinton. In 2020 he said he was running against “Sleepy Joe” Biden.

Trump switched things up last year, labeling the president “Crooked Joe.”

The survey

The survey was done by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The FAU survey of 1,180 adults was conducted on Friday and Saturday by Mainstreet Research. An important caveat: The survey was conducted via text message and an online panel. That made it impossible to assign a margin of error, the survey report said, adding it was “intended to represent the voting population” of the U.S.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.

The survey reported Trump with 41% to Biden’s 37%.

There was a significant gender gap. Trump was ahead of Biden by 2 percentage points among women and 7 points among men.

The former president was ahead of Biden by 5 or 6 percentage points among most age groups. They were tied among voters aged 50-64.

___

Someone else

Asked if they’d vote for Biden or Trump, a significant share of voters said they’d vote for another candidate (13%) or were undecided (9%).

Political insiders have been debating the effects additional candidates could have on the outcome. If an independent or third-party candidate attracts mostly people who would otherwise vote for Biden, that would aid Trump. If other candidates siphon more votes from Trump, that would help Biden.

A large share of voters — one third — don’t accept the notion that the election in November will actually come down to a choice between the current Democratic president and the former Republican president.

Just 54% of those surveyed said the 2024 presidential election would be between Biden and Trump.

Another 33% said one or both of the two wouldn’t be a candidate in November.

And 13% said they didn’t know if it would involve Biden, Trump or different candidates.

___

Other findings

Biden approval — 57% said they strongly or somewhat disapprove of the way Biden is handling his job as president and 38% said they somewhat or strongly approve.

Not locked in — A majority (53%) said they were very likely to cast a vote for the candidate they said they’d support in November. Another 26% said they were somewhat likely to vote for that candidate, with 7% somewhat unlikely and 5% very unlikely to vote for the candidate they said they’d support.

College vs. non-college — Among white non-college educated voters, Trump leads Biden 52% to 26%. Among white college-educated voters, Trump has a much smaller lead, 44% to 40%.

“Former President Trump is maintaining a commanding lead with white non-college-educated voters. This group has been steadfast and largely unmoved in their support of the former president,” Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist said in a written statement.
___

The survey

Most recent major national polls have Trump slightly ahead of Biden — and fewer voters undecided or considering unnamed alternatives. The RealClearPolling average Tuesday afternoon showed a 47% to 45% split.

The survey was done by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.

The FAU survey of 1,180 adults was conducted on Friday and Saturday by Mainstreet Research. An important caveat: The survey was conducted via text message and an online panel. That made it impossible to assign a margin of error, the survey report said, adding it was “intended to represent the voting population” of the U.S.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Facebook, Threads.net and Post.news.

U.S. District Judge Robin L. Rosenberg ruled that plaintiff Lawrence Caplan, and two other plaintiffs he added to his original lawsuit against Trump, lacked the legal standing to bring the case.

“Plaintiffs in this case similarly lack standing and, thus, this court lacks jurisdiction. Accordingly, the court exercises its discretion under the Declaratory Judgment Act, along with its obligation to examine its own jurisdiction, to dismiss this case,” she wrote in an order signed Thursday in West Palm Beach — exactly one week after Caplan filed his case.

Caplan said Friday he had “only looked at her opinion very quickly,” and he needed to examine it more closely.

“As far as her dismissal, I’m not surprised at all because I always thought that standing would be the preeminent issue,” Caplan said.

He said he did not plan to appeal Rosenberg’s dismissal “because that’s not going to go anywhere.” But he said he did not know if there are other options for filing another case in another jurisdiction.

Caplan’s lawsuit argued that the 14th Amendment to the Constitution — added after the Civil War to prevent people who had engaged in insurrection against the U.S. from holding office again — applied to Trump because of his involvement in and around the Jan. 6, 2021, attempt to overturn the results of the 2022 election.

In her ruling, Rosenberg referred to Trump’s “alleged” involvement. Rosenberg was nominated for the bench by then-President Barack Obama.

Much of the ruling quoted legal precedents giving the court discretion in deciding whether to allow a case to proceed and detailing the requirements for a plaintiff to have legal standing to bring a case. She said plaintiffs must have a personal stake in an issue that is particular to them.

The left-leaning national organization Free Speech For People, which like Caplan and prominent conservative and liberal scholars, argues Trump is disqualified under the 14th Amendment. In a statement Friday, the organization said Rosenberg’s ruling that the court doesn’t have jurisdiction and an individual doesn’t have standing is “unsurprising.”

Free Speech For People said it plans to challenge Trump’s eligibility in “multiple states” using existing challenge procedures. “This ruling, based on the limited jurisdiction of the federal courts, has no impact whatsoever on Trump’s eligibility for office or Free Speech For People’s planned challenges under state candidate eligibility challenge processes that are designed for this purpose.”

On Wednesday, the organization sent letters to chief election officials in five states — including Secretary of State Cord Byrd in Florida — urging them to keep Trump off the ballot under the provisions of the 14th Amendment.

Rosenberg wrote that the plaintiffs “lack standing to challenge (Trump’s) qualifications for seeking the Presidency, as the injuries alleged are not cognizable and not particular to them. Plaintiffs allege that they have standing because Plaintiff Caplan has actively participated in the last twelve Presidential elections, voted for both Republicans and Democrats, is a Florida resident and United States citizen, is an attorney and member of various courts, and has never been sanctioned. … Plaintiffs allege they will suffer injury if Defendant is allowed to run for President and prevail when he could be disqualified or removed from office. However, an individual citizen does not have standing to challenge whether another individual is qualified to hold public office,” Rosenberg wrote.

Rosenberg also cited two other court rulings that found “citizens attempting to disqualify individuals from participating in elections or from holding office based on the January 6, 2021 events at the United States Capitol lacked standing.”

Caplan, in an interview this week before the judge’s ruling, said he thought he would be challenged — by Trump — based on standing. The judge ruled before Trump was even served papers and got involved in the case.

To help bolster his case, Caplan early in the week amended his complaint in an attempt to bolster his argument that he had standing.

And he also added two more plaintiffs, Barry Butin, a Broward lawyer, and Michael Strianese, of Las Vegas.

In the days after he filed the complaint and it received news media attention, Caplan said he’d received lots of reaction, which he said was mostly positive. He said he had dozens of inquiries from around the country from people interested in filing the same kind of lawsuit in their states.

And he said people wanted to contribute to fund the effort, but he declined suggestions that he set up an online donation account. “I don’t want anybody to perceive this as my trying to make money off of this.”

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com, on Twitter @browardpolitics and on Post.news/@browardpolitics.

The lawsuit, citing Trump’s involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, wants the federal courts to enforce the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, added after the Civil War to prevent people who engaged in rebellion against the United States from holding office again.

Lawrence Caplan’s lawsuit asserts the provision clearly applies to Trump:

“President Trump’s efforts both in Washington, as well as in Georgia and perhaps other states, as well as the consequential assault on the U.S. Capitol … make him ineligible to ever serve in federal office again. Now given that the facts seem to be crystal clear that Trump was involved to some extent in the insurrection that took place on January 6th, the sole remaining question is whether American jurists who swear an oath to uphold the U.S. Constitution upon their entry to the bench, will choose to follow the letter of the Constitution in this case.”

Caplan concluded that the “bottom line here is that President Trump both engaged in an insurrection and also gave aid and comfort to other individuals who were engaging in such actions, within the clear meaning of those terms” as spelled out in the 14th Amendment “Trump is no longer eligible to seek the office of the President of the United States, or of any other state of the Union.”

Caplan didn’t come up with the theory on his own.

The theory has received lots of attention in recent weeks after legal scholars — including one of the nation’s preeminent conservative legal thinkers and members of the conservative Federalist Society — said the 14th Amendment unquestionably applies to Trump, and prohibits him from another term as president.

Caplan’s lawsuit, filed Thursday in U.S. District Court in South Florida, utilizes that theory in asking the court to declare Trump is barred from seeking the presidency and is barred from participating in the 2024 Florida Republican primary.

Despite the legal underpinnings for the case, people who dislike and fear Trump shouldn’t get too excited and people who love him shouldn’t get too alarmed.

“Realistically, it’s not a Hail Mary, but it’s just tossing the ball up and hoping it lands in the right place,” said Charles Zelden, a professor of history and legal studies who specializes in politics and voting at Nova Southeastern University. “It’s hopefulness that we can make the problem that is Trump simply go away. And I’m sorry, Trump is too big a problem to simply go away. He’s too much of a challenge to the system.”

“It’s kind of one of those ideas that only a law professor could love,” Zelden said.

Caplan said he concluded that it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that “this character could get reelected” and he decided that “someone had to take the lead.”

Caplan said he’s not a political activist.

“I’m not active at all in party politics,” he said. “I’m not a political animal.”

He has voted for presidential candidates of both parties over the years: Republicans Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush and Democrats Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton (“I held my nose”) and Joe Biden (“because there was no other choice.”)

To anyone who attempts to claim he isn’t a patriot, Caplan said, he’d tell them that after he finished law school he worked for the National Security Agency.

People who have intentionally taken on or inadvertently gone against Trump have found themselves subject to harassment by the former president’s supporters. Most recently, members of the Georgia grand jury that indicted Trump for his attempt to overturn the 2020 election have been threatened.

Caplan said he wasn’t concerned about a negative reaction. “Don’t care. I’ve been through multiple brain surgeries and I’m not concerned. I can survive that.”

Caplan, 65, who grew up in Miami, lives in Boca Raton and practices law in Boynton Beach, said this case “will be my last litigation.” He said he would concentrate on estate planning, tax and business law. He also owns a title company.

Zelden said he sees validity to the scholars’ argument. But it’s complicated. “On a practical level, how do you make this happen in real life?”

“The question with this is how do you determine that what Trump did was an insurrection? In some people’s minds it is and in some people’s minds it isn’t. And even if you come down on the side that says ‘yes, this is an insurrection,’ is the provision in the 14th Amendment self actualizing? Does it need laws that make it work in practice or is it simply automatic?” Zelden said. “These are tough questions to answer because there are no obvious answers.”

Caplan’s complaint describes recent history, including elements of what happened on and around Jan. 6, 2021.

And it discusses Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, the disqualification clause, automatically barring from service those who “having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof” unless Congress restores their right to hold office by a two-thirds vote.

In a scholarly paper posted online earlier this month and slated for publication next year in the University of Pennsylvania Law Review, William Baude of the University of Chicago Law School and Michael Stokes Paulsen of University of St. Thomas School of Law, detailed their conclusion after a year of research that the 14th Amendment disqualifies Trump.

Both are members of the Federalist Society, the incubator of conservative and limited-government legal thinking that has effectively become a requirement for judicial nominations during Trump’s presidency and in Florida under Gov. Ron DeSantis.

On Aug. 19, J. Michael Luttig, a former federal appeals court judge and leading conservative thinker, and Laurence Tribe, a liberal professor emeritus of constitutional law at Harvard Law School, wrote in The Atlantic that the 14th Amendment disqualifies Trump.

During the Republican presidential debate on Wednesday, former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas cited the legal scholars’ argument that Trump is disqualified. “This is something that disqualifies him under our rules and under our Constitution,” he said.

The outcome depends on what trial judges decide — with more cases likely in different states — followed by appeals courts and ultimately the Supreme Court, if it makes it that far in time for 2024 voting.

Caplan’s case was assigned to U.S. District Judge Robin L. Rosenberg, who sits in West Palm Beach. Rosenberg was nominated as a judge by Obama. Any appeals would go to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, a court dominated by conservatives, some of whom could put stock in the Luttig analysis.

Caplan said he expects his lawsuit will be opposed on multiple grounds, including whether he has legal standing to bring the case. In the complaint, he asserts he does.

Zelden said procedurally it may make more sense for someone challenging Trump’s ability to run would more appropriately file suit against the secretary of state, in charge of elections in many states, seeking an order to bar Trump from the ballot. “Suing Trump directly is not likely to have the impact that (Caplan) wants.”

Zelden said the 14th Amendment eligibility issue is like many things that surround Trump. “It’s just more of the mess that’s associated with Trump, whether you like him or dislike him, he makes the system of governance messy, complicated, difficult.”

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com, on Twitter @browardpolitics and on Post.news/@browardpolitics.